This is the first of my interactive posts. If you have any requests for interactive posts like this, please leave them below in the comment box!
This post assumes you have an understanding of how to play Can’t Stop. You can read a copy of the rules on BoardGameGeek.
After playing a few dozen games of Can’t Stop on BoardGameArena, I decided to build a calculator to see if my intuitive feeling of the percentages matched up with reality.
Calculating Bust Probability #
The first step is to identify what we are looking for. When playing Can’t Stop, the most useful information is the bust probability. Bust probability is a function of two variables: completed tracks, and in-progress tracks. Completed tracks is a list of all tracks that have reached the top. In-progress tracks is a list of all tracks that the current player is currently climbing. From these, a list of valid sums can be calculated: if there are fewer than three in-progress tracks, this is a list of all non-completed sums. If there are three in-progress tracks, then it is the in-progress sums minus any “tentatively complete” sums.
Next, I need to calculate all possible combinations of the dice. In total, there are 1,296 different rolls for four dice — 6^4. For each of these, there is between one and six possible sums to choose from. Lastly, I need to divide the possible combinations with a valid sum by all possible combinations. This is your chance of busting!
The Calculator #
See the Pen Can't Stop Calculator by Adam Giese (@AdamGiese) on CodePen.